Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800.
Saturday got off to a slow start, but finished with a bang, with top pick and single Quero Quero winning the 8th at $23, and with the recommended exacta to Atlantic Ocean coming back at $72. GOOD LUCK on Sunday.
#4 South Apple - Fair odds 9/5
Exacta: Box 4,1 (Infernal Mcgoon)
Daily Doubles: 4 with 1,2,3,5,6 (almost a wheel)
Favorite Alozaina is great to have in the race, opening low at 7/5 and overbet from there, still winless in 9 U.S. starts with no excuse, the beaten favorite in her last 2 starts. South Apple tried turf and 2 turns for the first time last out, and the result was a big effort, one in which she set all the early pace to the top of the lane and ended up 4th at 17/1. She gets a key jock change to Pat V, finds herself in a race devoid of other speed, and for the leading trainer she should run a wire to wire effort today. She's already got the most wins in the field with 3 (in 9 races) and should add to that total today.
Daily Double: 1,2,3,5,6 with 4
We can not play this race straight, only from the first in a daily double offering some value and going forward to the third in another double. Fog City Willy, Rhetoric Express, Ditch Digger, Jila and Ex Federali all have a legitimate shot to win, and all are very hard knocking horses in form. I can't separate them, and there are no odds here worth the risk (not even Jila at 10/1 on the line likely to get bet down as he went off at 7/2 last out), so we'll just roll another daily double and enjoy the competition.
#4 Misscrackerbarrel - Fair odds 2/1
This is a marathon on the turf, for maiden fillies, and not only does breeding come into play but so does pace. Misscrackerbarrel came back from 10 months off last out, on this course with Pat V up (who rides back), stalked in 3rd, rallied to drive clear, then was outfinished and ended up 2nd. The horse that beat her is on her way to stakes, the Juddmonte owned/ Frankel Trained Varnished, so this filly's 2nd place finish wasn't a disgrace by any means. With that comeback out of the way and the inside draw with the possibility to steal the race on the front end under Pat, she's the one to beat.
There's never any shame in passing a race, even one that starts the pick six. A field of 7 filly maiden claimers is entered here, and I can't make heads or tails out of them enough to warrant recommending a bet, so we should pass.
#4 Dutchess Eben - Fair odds 3/1
#8 Validating - Fair odds 2/1
Exacta: Box 4,8
Dutchess Eben won smartly last July in her debut, over the track, and in maiden allowance company. She drops into a claiming race for the first time ever, making her 3rd start off a layoff, and with her off the pace style and a lot of speed to set her up today, I'll give her top billing opening at 8/1. Validating ran 2nd last out after 4 months of at Bay Meadows after shipping up from Santa Anita, and immediately was RECLAIMED by Spawr, who had her for just one race last fall, a 5 length victory here at HOL. Pat V takes the call from a good outside post and this filly tops the field in wins with 3, so she should have a lot to do with the outcome today.
#4 Pitufa - Fair odds 5/2
#10 Ballistic Angel - Fair odds 3/1
#6 Slewpy Time Gal - Fair odds 4/1
Exacta: Box 4,6,10
Pitufa has the top early speed in the race, heightened by the drop in class to this level for the first time. She was 3/2 last out and ran badly, but versus tougher, and with blinkers that she will not be wearing today, so she's going to be able to relax a bit more but still show enough speed to go wire to wire. Ballistic Angel debuts for Abrams from a good post with a very good for the level workout over the track on 5/26, indicative that she's got some talent. Her sire gets an above average share of first out winners and although she's not playable to win at anywhere near her 3/1 morning line she gets a look for the exotics and consecutive race bets. Slewpy Time Gal drops to the bottom for her 2nd start today, with Lovato riding back, 3 for 10 for Hendricks, which means a lot since Tony hasn't won many since coming to this circuit. The filly got off badly in her debut and there's no telling how she might run with a good break today.
#7 Yogi's Polar Bear - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Wacky Patty - Fair odds 5/2
#6 Hot Weekend - Fair odds 5/2
Exactas: Box 7,4 Box 7,6
Wacky Patty and Hot Weekend both have top speed, and as young fillies may both want to go to the lead, in which case they could get weary enough late to be passed. On the other hand one of them could get an edge early and that could be that. Both have to be considered as win contenders for your pick 3 and other consecutive race bets, but for the win bet I'll take a shot with Yogi's Polar Bear, who was only 3/1 last out when 2nd to Wacky Patty, in her 1st start in California and 2nd career start. With Espinoza riding back, a good post, and the extra 1/2 furlong to deal with I think she's got a decent shot, presenting profit opportunity opening at 8/1.
#3 Maranilla - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Stormin Heavin - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: 3,5 over 1,3,5 (1 is Reel 'em In)
Maranilla improved a ton in his 2nd U.S. start last out, rallying very fast to lose a tough photo by a head. He's all set for his best here for Nakatani and Cecil, and with a 9/2 morning line offers a nice overlay to fair odds as well. Stormin Heavin also closed fast last out, at a mile, when third, and the extra eighth is just what the doctor ordered to get him to move up . That race was also his 2nd start off a layoff just like the top pick so there is improvement in the tank for this one as well. I'll throw heavy favorite Reel 'em In on the bottom of the exacta, because although he likes to win, he also likes to run 2nd, and with a speed horse just outside of him in Castle Gandolfo I think he can be softened up for the two closers listed as contenders today.
#1 Sune - Fair odds 5/2
#11 Shes Mischief - Fair odds 5/2
#7 Gallant Cat - Fair odds 4/1
Exacta: 1,7,11 over 1,3,5,7,11 (3 La Shoruka, 5 Game Time)
Sune shows a key pattern of class drop + jock switch which can be very powerful, and her three works since raced have been excellent for a cheap maiden claimer. The key may be Espinoza taking the call, as Victor is 4 for 17 for this trainer in the past year. With a m.l. of 6/1 she gets top call. Shes Mischief is a class dropper with speed, and from a good outside post making her 2nd start after a layoff could get out there on an early lead and never look back. Gallant Cat ran 2nd last out when dropped to the level and since Nakatani rides back we can expect the same or better here.
We had a huge day on Saturday, with three top picks winning, including $23 winner Continentalcolonel in the 9th. Return on top picks alone was $40 for every $16 on $2 bets. Good Luck Sunday.
#3 Cat In The Nat - Fair odds 6/5
Cat In The Nat is the lone frontrunner in this short field, 6 for 21 in his career to date and liable to repeat his wire to wire win just one race back over the course today with no other early speed to keep him in check early.
#1 Patriot Noise - Fair odds 2/1
#2 Unusual Glory - Fair odds 5/2
#7 Aimees Pride - Fair odds 5/2
Albert Slewsky and Obermeister (the vulnerable favorite) figure to sizzle early and fizzle late. Patriot Noise rallied for a win and a 2nd in his last two, both over the course. With the rail today and being 9/5 last out but 6/1 today on the line he's a key bet. Unusual Glory shoots for his 3rd straight win, the last his first turf route and now with Hollendorfer taking over his training he should have a big say in the outcome right back. Aimees Pride takes a hidden drop from open claimers to first level allowance, and making his 2nd start in a turf route and facing much easier, plus with a So. Cal. jock that is 3 for 6 for the trainer coming along for the ride he gets a decent look here.
The key here is whether trainer Ward entered either #1 Sanger or #2 Heza Starr to make the race go, as most races need six entrants to make it on the card. Often, a trainer will enter two to make the race go, then scratch one of the two. In this case if one of the two Ward entrants scratches, the other is a decent play, with fair odds of 2/1. Otherwise we pass. Heza Starr ships down from Emerald and comes back from a 9 month layoff, with some ability shown last summer, while Sanger gets BAZE to ride as he makes his first start for Ward, and in his only race at this level, his debut last summer, he rallied from last to fourth to show he too has some ability.
#7 Chautauqua - Fair odds 4/1
#8 Flying With Mimi - Fair odds 4/1
I can't separate five of these, the two listed plus #2 No Peso No Dance, #6 First Draft and #4 Avec Toi. BUT, since those three don't offer the big value compared to the two listed we'll take a swing with win bets, at least for a few bucks on both of those. Chautauqua adds blinkers for his 2nd start off a layoff and moves back to grass where he won just before the rest. With a big work in his new hood he should give us a nice run for our money. Flying With Mimi improved fast from his 1st start off a layoff to his 2nd last out, getting 2nd at this distance on this grass course. Expect the same or better here.
#4 Way Out Story - Fair odds 5/2
#1 Video Cat - Fair odds 5/2
#2 Irish Account - Fair odds 5/2
| Exacta: Box 1,2,4
Way Out Story has a good inside post and the top early speed in the race. He should be tough to keep from going wire to wire in this situation. Video Cat also draws well inside, making his 3rd career start and 2nd in a route. He ran well enough last out when third and should run well again, but is susceptible to a lone frontrunner here, as is Irish Account who rallied for 2nd in his debut last out, at this distance over the track. He too should be competitive right back with logical improvement.
Weak race, compounded by low prices among the contenders. Taj and Mayor Murphy are 0 for 29 combined so far in their careers, and with morning lines of 5/2 and 3/1 it's impossible to take a shot with a win bet. Use both in any pick 3,4 or 6 plays you make.
#3 Aquaduck - Fair odds 2/1
Exactas: Box 3,1 (Wild Linear) Box 3,5 (Cassie Anne) Box 3,8 (Heaven's Mirror)
Trainer Kent Molinaro is BACK! Always competent, he hit a cold streak recently, but has been winning with nearly everything he saddles once again, 5 for 7 at the meet, and 15 for 41 in the past year. He takes over training of Aquaduck for the first time here, bringing the filly back from 10 months of rest, culminating in an awesome 46 second workout on 6/4 to say she's ready to run!
#2 Gottalovefaith - Fair odds 5/2
#3 Espartico Bob - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: 2,3 over 8 (Miracle Flight)
We should consider #4 Russell Cave and #4 Mayneunderfire as win contenders as well, for the pick 3, 4 and 6 but for win bets and in the exacta I'm going to just use the two above. Gottalovefaith was RECLAIMED for the THIRD time by Sherman, a heck of a sign. The colt is 5 for 12 in his career and needed his last start after 9 months last out, so he's ready to run back to any one of his 4 wins in 2002 here. Espartico Bob lost a tough 3 horse photo last out under identical conditions, his sixth straight in-the-money finish, and would be no surprise here.
The card so far was pretty good, and hopefully we have more in our pockets then what we started with. This is a "RUN for THE BORDER", or in this case a "RUN for THE EXITS" race, a 8K maiden claimer with nothing at all trustworthy enough for even the smallest bet.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr15@insightbb.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.