Selections
by Ellis Starr for Santa Anita – Sunday 02/14/10
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better
handicapper and bettor and at the same time keep you in the game with uncommon
selections and analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections and analysis: The horses listed in BOLD at the top of each race section are the horses I think have
the highest probability to win ('win contenders'). I list them according to my
preference and with fair odds for determining the threshold for making win
bets. Fair odds are a guide. The
best way to use this report is to consider win bets at or above fair odds,
starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a 'win contender' but
below fair odds it still can be used in other ways to profit, such as in the
exacta. When considering exactas remember that the 2nd best 'win contender'
isn't necessarily the best horse to run second, so even though I rank horses in
order that doesn't mean they will, or won't, finish in that order. When I feel
an exacta is warranted I specifically say so.
Guide
to Ratings:
- Race is predictable but may not offer much
opportunity for profit, or is unpredictable but offers opportunity for
profit if the returns are high enough.
- Race presents an average (decent) profit
opportunity depending on the potential returns.
- Race that presents an exceptional profit
opportunity, not necessarily that any particular horse in the race does.
These races usually have vulnerable favorites, contenders at high odds, or
both. Whether any horse or horses in the race present exceptional
opportunity will depend on the odds and potential returns.
You can get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily at www.trackmaster.com
and www.equibase.com
HAPPY VALENTINE’S
DAY
Always
Check Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating = 2
#1 Super Sophie - Fair odds 2/1
#3 Whispering Dixie - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 1,3
Super Sophia gets the ground saving rail for
her 2nd career route since coming to the U.S., and having won off a
layoff in July going two turns and coming back from a layoff today and having
finished 2nd in her August, 2009 turf start at the level she appears
tough to beat. Whispering
Dixie rallied from far back to get 2nd to a next-out winner on the
turf in December then missed by less than a length in an off-turf race on 12/30
before taking time off and could quite easily pick up where she left off with a
competitive effort to get into the exacta at the least.
Race #2 - Rating = 2
#6 Orientation Hall - Fair odds 5/2
#3 A Cat Named Snipe - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 3,6
With I Wanna Getaway and Bilo
both wanting the lead from the start and at any cost, Orientation Hall can sit in third in the early
stages exactly as he did last out on 1/27 when winning by a length and
one-half, at this distance over this track under Garcia, up for the 1st
time that day and probably up for his 2nd win in a row today. A Cat Named Snipe gets the kind of pace scenario he needs for success today,
just as he did on 10/17 here at SA at this distance when rallying from last to
get up by a nose on the wire, so he’s the other contender to win and to
be part of the exacta.
Race #3 - Rating = 2
#5 Red Alert Day - Fair odds 8/5
#2 Great Siege - Fair odds 8/5
Exacta: Box 2,5
Red Alert Day won by a head one before last
then missed by a nose last out, both on this turf course under Talamo, who
rides here. With the best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field (111) to repeat or improve upon he’s
the one to beat. Great Siege was overmatched a bit but not disgraced when a nose
from 3rd and a length and 1/3 from 1st in the Grade 2 San
Gabriel Handicap on opening week, at 9 furlongs on turf, and having won by a
head at the one lower NW2X allowance level prior to that, most importantly at
this mile turf trip under Espinoza, who rides back, and having earned his
maiden win with Victor in the saddle on this course at a mile, he’s the
other horse that figures to dominate the remaining four entrants in this race.
Race #4 - Rating = 1
#1a Warren's Casino Guy (coupled with Warrens
Paddockguy) - Fair odds 7/5
Exactas: 1 over 3,6 (#3 is
Leaving New York, #6 is Tiz Argent)
Exactas Box 1,3 Box 1,6
Warren’s Casino Guy rallied
from next-to-last to lead late and settled for 2nd in a 9 horse
field on 12/28 here at Santa Anita, in similar statebred maiden company, then
last out on 1/16 when raised in class to face OPEN (not restricted to Cal-Breds
only) company he led from the start and was only a length from the winner at
the end in 4th. Back in against Cal-Breds, with a big jockey change
from Arambula to Bejarano, and most importantly with both the winner and 3rd
place finisher from his representative 12/28 effort having come out of that
race to win, he’s going to be very tough to keep from breaking his maiden
today.
Race #5 - Rating = 2
#7 Espresso Springs - Fair odds 9/5
#4 Bradio Station - Fair odds 5/2
#3 Came Abroad - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 3,4,7
Espresso Springs won easily by 4 lengths
last out on 1/15, giving him 3 wins in 7 races tied for the most wins in the
field with Purse Luva. Espresso Springs was ridden by Baze for the first time
in victory and rallied nicely from 6th, so with an outside post today and some
pace to make him look good late, and bred to stretch out to two turns with no
issues, he could roll by the field and win again. Bradio Station was
overmatched and out of his element in an optional 80K claimer on turf last out
but prior to that won a main track route, his 2nd win in a row, so
with a shot to rebound back on the main track and against his own age group in
a cheaper claimer he must be considered. Came Abroad finished 2nd twice in
main track routes and broke his maiden in a turf route before being overmatched
in a stakes on opening week, Bejarano up for his maiden win and sticking with
him as he races in a claimer for the first time, giving him every right to
return to competitive form as well.
Race #6 - Rating = 2
#8 Sky Marni - Fair odds 2/1
#9 You Can Dream - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Malusita - Fair odds 9/2
#2 Suances de Espana - Fair odds 9/2
Exactas: 8 over 2,5,9 and 2,5,9
over 8 then also 9 over 2,5,8 and 2,5,8 over 9
Sky Marni rallied strongly from 7th
of 8th place last out to get to within a neck of the lead in the stretch
and battled down to the wire to miss by a half length while finishing 2 ¼
lengths clear of the next horse. Claimed out of that race by the hot Avila barn, going to it’s
#1 jockey in Berrio, this filly who won at this exact 20K four year olds only
claiming level in December can handle the raise and win off the claim today. You Can Dream won by 4
when leading from start to finish last out on 1/17 over the track versus 16K
4-year-olds only and has every right to put in another “A” race
good enough to win again from her outside post. Malusita rallied from 10th of
11 to get 2nd versus older last out on 1/29 after nearly 2 months
off and must be respected, while Suances de Espana won nicely by a head and
now has won or been within a head of winning in 3 of four career races, so with
Rosario riding back and picking her to ride over Multitasker (who Joel rode to
victory earlier in the meeting) she rounds out our quartet of contenders.
Race #7 - Rating = 2
#4 Captain Kali / #1 Leedstheway - Fair odds 2/1 (uncoupled
entry)
#2 Achak - Fair odds 2/1
#6 Flashmans papers - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Rainbow Goose - Fair odds 7/2
Exactas: 4 over 1,2,5,6 and
1,2,5,6 over 4 then also 1 over 2,4,5,6 and 2,4,5,6 over 1
Optionally, box 1,2,4,5,6 for $1
Captain Kali and Leedstheway form a
ONE-TWO punch from the Mullins barn, Captain Kali having early speed,
Leedstheway likely to come from off the pace. Captain Kali has only been worse
than 3rd once in 6 tries in his career down the hillside turf course,
nearly winning versus similar company last out on 1/10 after opening up by a
length and one-half in the stretch, and with it appearing he’s going to
have the lead all to himself from the start today he must get a lot of
consideration as a win contender. Leedstheway rejoins the Mullins barn, which
saddled him to the first two victories of his career in his first two career
races, and as he’s bred to handle turf just fine and with a pair of
scorching recent workouts he too must be respected to bring Mullins the major
shares of the purse. Achak beat some of these down the hill in November and
missed by a neck last out at the trip on 1/9 to decidedly tougher older
optional allowance foes, with winner Banner Lodge having come back on Thursday
to run a big 2nd, so he fits on all counts and could easily be the
one found getting his picture taken in the winners’ circle. Flashmans Papers finished
3rd to Achak on 11/4 then won down the hill next out on 1/10 so he
too deserves a lot of consideration for our wagering dollars. Rainbow Goose drops
back into a 4 year old only claimer after finishing 2nd to tougher
and older at the NW1X allowance level but that’s wasn’t as tough of
a field at Achak nearly beat so he’s rated below that one. Nevertheless,
with no finish worse than 2nd in 3 downhill turf tries he’s
another to be respected.
Race #8 - Rating = 3
#4 Striking Dancer - Fair odds 9/2
#1 Unrivaled Belle - Fair odds 9/2
#6 Pretty Katherine / #12 Spirit Seeker - Fair odds 5/1 (uncoupled
entry)
#10 Miss Silver Brook - Fair odds 6/1
#8 Stardom Bound - Fair odds 6/1 (YES,
6 to 1)
Exactas: 1 over 4,6,8,10,12,13,14
and 4,6,8,10,12,13,14 over 1
#13 is Floating Heart, #14 is
Pretty Unusual
In an amazingly deep 14 horse
field, we’ll go six deep but key on Striking Dancer to post the upset for profit and
key on Unrivaled
Belle to be first or second as the exacta key.
Striking Dancer finished 2nd, beaten ¾
of a length, as a 2 year old in the Caressing Handicap in only the 4th
start of her career, 2nd going long, after decimating a 12 horse
field breaking her maiden by almost 6 lengths, beating Floating Heart and some
other good fillies in the process. After a win on turf she failed in a stakes
race then two later won as she pleased by 5 at 9 furlongs on turf, then ran
poorly in grade 2. Rested 2 more
months, Striking Dancer came back in a classified allowance race that just as
easily could have been a stakes, for 4 year olds and upward, at a mile on turf,
and in that race she was HOPELESSLY BLOCKED for 1/16 of a mile at the most
critical stage of the race. She was eager and full of run and only 2 back at
the 1/8 pole but had nowhere to run, and when finally angled out on the wire
she GALLOPED OUT ON TOP. As a daughter of Smart Strike out of a Danehill mare
she’s bred to excel at this distance on turf and with the same effort she
would have put forth last out if allowed to run in this situation and with a
clean trip, hopefully due to the jockey change to Solis, she can post the upset
and make us a big profit on the day. Unrivaled Belle gets the ground saving rail and
has done little wrong in 5 career start, never worse than 2nd in any
of them including the Grade 1 Gazelle last November at this distance. Shipping
from Florida
and getting Desormeaux to ride, up for a win and 2 second place efforts, she
should be right there at the wire today. Pretty Katherine and Spirit Seeker both
come from the Hollendorfer barn, and as Jerry gets top jockey Rosario and
Bejarano to ride we must take note. Pretty Katherine won when last seen over
the track on 12/28 with a near stakes quality effort and could be ready for
this level, while Spirit Seeker pressed the pace in the similar El Encino
Stakes on 1/17 then tired, so with the jockey change to Bejarano a return to
the off the pace tactics that resulted in her missing by a neck in a listed
stakes before that is possible. Miss Silver Brook only won at the NW1X
level last out as opposed to Pretty Katherine winning at the NW2X level but she
earned a 102 figure that makes her appear competitive here with improvement,
and with Gomez deciding to ride back for the red hot Julio Canani barn she’s
yet another worth a look. Stardom Bound will be overbet once again and although she ran on
nicely in the El Encino for 2nd she only earned a 98 figure, with
her best career figure 105 winning the BC Juvenile Fillies in the fall of 2008,
so even with the jockey change to Leparoux she appears to be only as good, not
better than, any number of these and is a contender for any and all wagers we
make involving this race, except perhaps win bets.
Race #9- Rating = 2
#9 Champion Ride - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Miss Seamless - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Movie Duty - Fair odds 4/1
#5 Miss Olivia K - Fair odds 4/1
$1 Exactas: 4,5,7,9 over
2,4,5,7,9 (#2 is Fair Kisses)
Champion Ride gets a good outside post for her
2nd career start, having broken slowly then rushing up from 7th
to 2nd in her debut when well regarded at 5 to 2. Claimed out of
that race and with Talamo taking over, she’s got a big shot to redeem herself
today. Miss
Seamless also broke slowly in her debut last out, 8th and last, from
the rail, rallying to miss 3rd by a half length at the end, and with
a better break and better post she could be right there at the wire today. Movie Duty adds
blinkers as she ships in from Florida
and joins the red hot Cerin barn, and having show ability when 3rd of
9 in her debut last July she must be respected in this type of race and field
today. Miss
Olivia K rallied for 3rd of 11 in her debut on 12/31 and is another
with improving to do, not to mention the big jockey change from Valdez to Rosario,
to aid her chances of improving into the winners’ circle today.