Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
#6 Appro - Fair odds 2/1
#8 Starship Smoker - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 6,8
Appro ran third after pressing the pace in his debut. That experience plus logical improvement as he races into shape and a clean break today along with the drop into a maiden claimer make him the one to beat for "The Chief", Allen Jerkins, red hot at the meet with 10 winners so far in 38 races. Starship Smoker didn't want to go a mile last out, but in his last sprint he closed nicely for 2nd in his first race outside of California, and with today's jock. He too takes the drop from MSW to MCL and that should move him as well off that 4/6 effort. Both of these two benefit from a likely pace duel from up to four of these: Six Pack Sally, Citiview, Pumpkin's pride and Lily of The Valley.
#1 French Smile - Fair odds 2/1
French Smile gets the good rail, shipping in from Monmouth where he's been in serious training. He has two wins and a 2nd this year in 3 races, the most recent being at this distance and nearly this claiming level. He was claimed in January by top Florida trainer Walder and another trainer, Anthony Pecoraro, who have and who continue to manage him for maximum results. With Migliore riding and in this short and mostly weak field he's a key bet anywhere near his 5/1 morning line as a repeat of either of his last 3 efforts should win this.
#6 Yolandas A Token - Fair odds 2/1
#1 Lasik - Fair odds 2/1
Yolandas A Token gets a better post then the other contender, plus the race at Keeneland she ran in her debut was a more highly rated race then the one Lasik did at AQU recently. Migliore rides Yolandas A Token and with just a touch of improvement off her debut she could go wire to wire today. Why anyone would name a horse lasik is beyond me, but it's their choice I guess. Lasik ran third after a bad start in her debut in April and was well regarded at 3/1 that day. With a better break, likely improvement with racing, and lasix, she should be tough, but I still won't even consider betting her at less then 2/1, as these still are 2 year old maiden fillies.
#4 Classy E T - Fair odds 5/2
#9 Sharp Little Boy - Fair odds 3/1
#1 Y Two J - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 1,4,9
We're trying to beat #7 City of Peace here, the 5/2 m.l. favorite, although he can be considered for any pick 3's you play, because her 2 for 11 record over the past 18 months don't reconcile with his low odds. Classy E T had a badly needed race after 9 months off last out, a race he ran decently enough to be third in. It was also his first race off the claim in August by top trainer Barbara. John V gets on instead of Gryder, a huge sign in his favor, and with a record of 15 1st or 2nd place finishes in 27 races and a morning line of 6/1 he's worth a strong look here. Sharp Little Boy and Y Two J just ran 2nd and first, reversed through disqualification, over the track on 5/31. In spite of both of those good efforts at the level and over the track they open at 6/1 and 5/1 here, and as they can both run well once again are not only win bet possibilities but also good horses to use to complete the exacta.
(Turf Only)
#7 Secret Run - Fair odds 9/2
Exactas: Box 7,4 (Morning's Issue) Box 7,5 (Nolimosforyou) Box 7,6 (Titanium Ghost) Box 7,9 (Millennium Ghost)
I am taking a stand against favorites #1 Stage Show/Monthir as well as #2 Special Rate, even for the pick 3, 4 and 6, not only because there is better value offered in this race in the win pools and exactas but also because both trouble me at low prices. Secret Run has run twice before on grass, both super efforts, a win and a place. She ran 2nd at this NW2X allowance level when last seen, at 3/1, and she has the ability to get the lead here and never look back as a horse coming off a brief freshening for good trainer Reynolds and with Castellano in the saddle.
#8 American Song - Fair odds 9/2 - win /place
#2 Five Eighty Four - Fair odds 7/2
Exactas: Box 8,5 (Curb) Box 8,9 (Guardian) Box 8,2(Five Eighty Four) Box 8,4 (Fabricator)
Besides the two listed win contenders above, you can consider #4 Fabricator, #5 Curb and #9 Guardian for your pick 3, 4 and 6 plays. American Song cost $575,000 as a yearling. Although he hasn't broken his maiden in 8 starts he's still highly regarded as he remains in maiden allowance company, for Zito, who is taking blinkers off after a two race failed experiment in them. This is the colt's 2nd start off a layoff and he has been known to flash speed on occasion. In this weak field it's possible he could get very brave and go wire to wire and post the upset. Five Eighty Four improved a lot last out in his 2nd start of the year and 3rd lifetime start. He adds lasix for further improvement, and will go off at a decent price because Bailey gets on. I have no problem with the jock the replaces Jerry, Bridgmohan, and I give this colt a lot of possibility for improvement.
(Turf Only)
#7 Hypnotist - Fair odds 5/2
#2 Lismore Knight - Fair odds 5/2
#1 Urban King - Fair odds 5/2
The contender opening at the best price by far, 10/1 on the morning line, Hypnotist is a stakes winner on the grass and a horse familiar with this turf course, having run 2nd on it last Fall. The jock that rode him that day but hasn't ridden since gets back on, and with a turf work over this track and coming back from a short rest like the won he won off of last Fall, he gets a nice push all around here. Lismore Knight is also a stakes winner, on the grass, as well as run 2nd to Peace Rules on the turf last November at Hol. He won over this course, last out, in allowance company off a layoff, and seems like a perfect fit back in stakes company today. Urban King, opens at 2/1, similar to Lismore Knight, who opens at 3/1, in terms of perhaps not being able to make a win bet. He ran 3rd after a slow start in his U.S. debut in April at Santa Anita, and for Frankel, with Prado riding, and from the good rail he should be tough as well, but also at much lower price then the top choice, likely meaning we can and should only use him, as well as Lismore Knight, in the pick 3 and other consecutive race plays we make.
#7 More Heck - Fair odds 5/2
#1 In High Gear - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 1,7,9
Besides the exacta listed above, you can also consider #9 Make My Day Jur for the pick 3, 4 and 6, but for a win bet, with better values in the race we'll look at the two contenders listed. More Heck is a perfect 2 for 2, the most recent win at one level lower on the allowance scale, here at BEL, at 5/2, yet he opens here at 6/1, a big overlay from what would be fair odds to win. He won one race wire to wire and the other from off the pace, is still improving, and will be very tough. In High Gear ran third on the comeback last out in a good effort, and with the key jock switch to John V, up for a 4 length win the only time he rode the colt, and with two sizzling workouts since his last race, and with a win from the rail before, he has a strong chance as well to get all the marbles today.
#2 Iron Deputy - Fair odds 5/2
All 6 of these except Evening Attire can win, but I'm going to take a stand and just go with Iron Deputy who at 10/1 on the line in this short field may be a true gift. Not only does he come off an 11 length win at this distance in his last start, he has the inside and the likely only early speed in the race. Migliore rides here and has been up for all 7 of his career race, resulting in 4 wins, and as he's still improving (scary really) making his third start after 7 months off he could dominate by double digits once more, plus he shows a solid 112 six furlong bullet work since his last start to tell us how good he's feeling.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr@equibase.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.