Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
Note: For a sloppy, yucky day in which turf racing was cancelled, we had a pretty good day with the report in Sunday, going two for four. Because of scratches and races taken of the turf (no play as they were marked as turf only), we made a decent profit, with winners Baltic Heights ($3.60) and Moonlightandbeauty ($12.60) back to back, plus the cold $28 exacta to Holiday Lady in that same 3rd race. Good Luck Wednesday.
#7 Burkie The Bear - Fair odds 3/1
Making his 2nd start off a layoff, 3rd career start, and first in blinkers, Burkie The Bear looks like a decent play in this NY Bred maiden race. He debuted last April at 4/5, set a fast pace, then tired. Coming back from a layoff last out he pressed the pace then tired. I figure that with the new hood he can get the lead, relax, and never look back, and may be a gift here opening at 6/1 on the morning line.
#1 Dr. Guiliani - Fair odds 3/1
Favorite Power Wing is vulnerable here opening at 8/5, as the last five times he has gone off as the favorite he has lost. Dr Guiliani could be another horse on the card to steal the race on the front end. He comes back fresh from a short layoff, with the jock that has ridden him to his only 2 career wins. He on off the pace in April and wire to wire in February, and in this weak field a repeat of either of those efforts gets him his 3rd win of the year, dropping into a claimer for the very first time to give him a class edge as well.
#4 Genevil - Fair odds 2/1
A legitimate favorite, Genevil has improved in each of her 3 career starts to date, running 3rd in her last start. Adding lasix today while cutting back from a mile to 7 furlongs, with a bug jock change to Prado, should see her graduating from the maiden ranks today.
#2 Swinging Ghost - Fair odds 9/5
#7 I'am A Red Sox Fan - Fair odds 2/1
#3 World Class - Fair odds 7/2
Swinging Ghost ran on fast for 2nd in his debut over the track 10 days ago. Not only is coming back quickly a very good sign, but he adds blinkers as well. With Chavez staying aboard for red hot Stanley Hough he's a legitimate favorite and the one to beat. I'am A Red Sox Fan also ran 2nd last out in his debut, to a runaway winner, at 20/1. Prado rides him back and he has just about as good a shot to win as the top choice with likely improvement. World Class gives up a little experience edge to the top two as he's a first time starter, but he's in the top Pletcher barn with Todd's #1 jock in John V riding, so we must give him respect, shipping in from Saratoga where he's been in very consistent training for 2 months now.
(Turf Only)
#2 Longingtobeme - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Rose Esther - Fair odds 4/1
#8 Krisana - Fair odds 4/1
Substitute for scratches: #9 Candy Adventure - Fair odds 4/1
Exacta: 2,4,8 over 2,4,8,9
Longingtobeme needed his last badly after 4 months off and could be all set to run as well or better then she did in September on this course with this jock up, 2nd at 20/1 to the very talented Love N Kiss S. She's been badly overmatched since then and in a claimer today could pop back up with her best. Rose Esther has notched all four of her career wins on this turf course, and following a fast closing 2nd place finish last out over this course after 7 months off has to be strongly considered, in addition to being an overlay as she starts at 8/1 on the line. Krisana ran a big race one back off a layoff when third then bounced (regressed) last out as if often the case 2nd off a layoff. With a nice jock change to Luzzi and good late speed she too could run well at a price, opening at 6/1.
#7 Sweet Samantha - Fair odds 7/5
Exacta: 7 over 1,2,4,6,8 (Soon Soon, Alleged Whisper, Karakorum Crusader, Queen of Saratoga and Jezabel Cant Spell)
Sweet Samantha is another legitimate favorite on the card, a single for your pick 3 and other consecutive race plays as well as in the exacta. She debuted last summer at Saratoga and crushed the field by 20 + lengths, then followed that up with a stakes win by 8. She was sent off as the even money favorite in a NY Bred stakes last fall here at BEL, set the pace, then tired, and with good works for her comeback and no other early speed in the race, she going to be very tough to beat as a fresh horse.
(Turf Only)
#10 August Song - Fair odds 4/1
#11 Company Man - Fair odds 4/1
August Song earned his only career win at Belmont on the turf, last June, and after getting his comeback out of the way last out, and dropping to this level for the very first time, has a nice shot. There's a lot of speed in here to set up his late kick and with Chavez guiding him and opening at 5/1 (he was 5/2 last out) he's get top call. Company Man finished fast last out, on the grass, his first race at this level and after a rest as well. He's on a nice pattern for improvement and should have a say in the outcome.
#3 Blue Boat - Fair odds 2/1
#5 Decoder - Fair odds 2/1
#7 Trustee Man - Fair odds 2/1
Predictable yet chalky, these three all have about the same shot to win, and the rest have very little. Blue Boat romped in his U.S. debut last out for Frankel, first race after 7 months off, and it's onward and upward from here. No problem moving from turf to dirt, as we remember Mazel Trick fondly decimating the field for Bobby when he made the move a couple of years ago. Decoder won by 10 last out over the track, at the distance, and with Prado up (who rides here) to break his maiden. He fits well and would be no surprise. Trustee Man won at a mile over the track to break his maiden and can improve. Although he loses Prado to Decoder he picks up Chavez and there's no reason that he should be the highest price of the 3 contenders by far, opening at 6/1, so keep a close eye on him.
(Turf Only)
#10 Texarkana - Fair odds 2/1
Exacta: 10 over 3,5,6 (King of Siam, Occult, Dynamometer)
Sure, 8/5 favorite Dynamometer can win, as he rallied in his debut to lose a 3 horse photo by a neck, on the grass, and with Prado up, who rides here. Trouble is that race was 3 1/2 months ago, and there are a lot of closers in this race, so he could find himself in traffic trouble as well, making his price too low to consider for a win bet. On the other hand, Texarkana opens huge at 12/1, with Chavez riding, up for a 2nd on the colt in November. Toss out his last race, a needed comeback and irrelevant as it was on dirt, and with another jock up as well. The key is not only Jorge getting back on but the return to the Belmont turf where he ran third last October, as well as the sensational 47 flat four furlong workout a couple of days ago. He's all set to run huge here and end our day with a profit, maybe even wire to wire in a field mostly devoid of early speed.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr@equibase.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.