Selections
by Ellis Starr for Belmont
Park – Saturday
06/06/09
Belmont Stakes Day
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better
handicapper and bettor and at the same time keep you in the game with uncommon
selections and analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections and analysis: The horses listed in BOLD at the top of each race section are the horses I think have
the highest probability to win ('win contenders'). I list them according to my
preference and with fair odds for determining the threshold for making win
bets. Fair odds are a guide. The
best way to use this report is to consider win bets at or above fair odds,
starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a 'win contender' but
below fair odds it still can be used in other ways to profit, such as in the
exacta. When considering exactas remember that the 2nd best 'win contender' isn't
necessarily the best horse to run second, so even though I rank horses in order
that doesn't mean they will, or won't, finish in that order. When I feel an
exacta is warranted I specifically say so.
Guide
to Ratings:
- Race is predictable but may not offer much
opportunity for profit, or is unpredictable but offers opportunity for
profit if the returns are high enough.
- Race presents an average (decent) profit
opportunity depending on the potential returns.
- Race that presents an exceptional profit opportunity,
not necessarily that any particular horse in the race does. These races
usually have vulnerable favorites, contenders at high odds, or both.
Whether any horse or horses in the race present exceptional opportunity
will depend on the odds and potential returns.
You can get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily at www.trackmaster.com
and www.equibase.com
Always
Check Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating = 3
#2 Night in
Tunisa - Fair odds 3/1
#9 Blow Up - Fair odds 3/1
#6 Karakorum
On Black - Fair odds 3/1
$1 exactas: Box
2,6,9
Box 2,5,6,9 (#5 is Living Out a Dream)
2,6,9 over 1,3,8 (#1 is Dixieland Star, #3 is Inger Management and #8 is
Knife and Fork)
With Dixieland Star a need-the-lead type and on the rail and with Inger
Management and Toque having earned all their victories leading from start to
finish, it’s going to be tough for any one of them to wrest the lead from
any other of them in the early stages and still have anything left for the last
1/8 of a mile when the closers kick into high gear. With Dixieland Star the 2/1
morning line favorite and now vulnerable from a pace perspective, we begin
Belmont Stakes day with a KEY BETTING race full of opportunity for profit.
Night in
Tunisa opens at a hefty 12/1, but fits
this statebred NW1X allowance condition to a “T”, having broken his
maiden last October here at Belmont,
at this six furlong trip, in a statebred maiden special weight race. With his
last start on 5/1, on turf, irrelevant in assessing his chances of success on
the dirt, the same as his debut which was also a turf race, Night in Tunisa
presents the same pattern for success he did when he broke his maiden last
fall, incidentally going to post as the 8 to 5 favorite that day. With his ONLY
other two dirt sprint starts good efforts which resulted in 3rd and
2nd place finishes and back at the conditions of his only career
win, including getting the same 2 post position, Night in Tunisa gets top
billing to post the upset in the opener and hopefully to set the stage for a
big profit. Blow Up has a win and a runner-up effort in his two career start on a conventional
dirt surface, his other two (on turf and the winterized inner track at
Aqueduct) irrelevant. Coming off a five length win over the track on May 15
when breaking his maiden easily under Chavez, who rides back, Blow Up is a
perfect fit at this NW1X level and can take another step forward to win again. Karakorum on Black opens at the
same ridiculously high 12/1 odds as the top pick, this colt coming off a
victory versus WINNERS last out at the open 15K non-winners of 2 lifetime claiming
level. Although he may appear outclassed on paper, moving from open to
restricted (to NY Breds only) company is really not a step up in class,
particularly since the 91 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in victory is on par
with the 91 that 2/1 morning line favorite Dixieland Star earned when breaking
his maiden. As such, Karakorum
on Black gives us another horse to consider for a win or win/place bet at
potentially double digit odds.
Race #2 - Rating = 2
#3 Speight of
Hand - Fair odds 9/5
#4 Turaath - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Brother
Nick - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Great
Emperor - Fair odds 9/2
Speight
of Hand is the only horse in the field
to have won at this 7 furlong distance, the win coming one before last, by 4
½ lengths, with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure that was improved to 110
when 2nd and beaten a nose in his last start on May 10 here at
Belmont in a one turn mile and one-sixteenth race. With the cut back in
distance providing some needed stamina/wind in the late stages and likely to
improve even more in his third start after a 5 month rest, Speight of Hand
appears to be the one to beat. Turaath comes back
from a layoff since last November, winning by 2 ½ lengths when last seen
to break his maiden in his 2nd career start. With that victory
coming off a layoff and with a best of the day workout coming into
today’s race Turaath has a decent shot to pick up where he left off last
fall, with a win. Brother Nick romped by 7
lengths on 5/15 in his 2nd career start and following two months
off, ridden out with gas left in the tank for today’s race. With
Desormeaux up for the 1st time that day and riding him back and with
some extra stamina in the late stages afforded by the cut back from two turns
to one this is yet another horse who might be capable of moving right through
this first allowance condition.
Race #3 - Rating = 2
#2
Convocation - Fair odds 3/1
#6 Woodford
Manhattan - Fair odds 7/2
#10
Allrightsreserved - Fair odds 4/1
#7 Ricoriatoa - Fair odds 9/2
#11 Wanted
Alive - Fair odds 5/1
Even #12 Frenchonionsoup can be considered a win contender, at least for
the purpose of inclusion on any pick 3 or 4 tickets played.
Convocation ran too good to lose on 4/2 after 2 months
off when coming up a length short of victory after having been boxed in on the
far turn and forced to steady. As it was he ended up 6 lengths clear of the
next horse, and so today making his 2nd start at this one-turn mile
trip at Belmont and with anything resembling a clean trip he should be found
posing for pictures in the winners’ circle when all is said and done. Woodford
Manhattan led from the start and got
nailed on the wire by a head one before last in a highly rated race at
Keeneland run at seven furlongs, the 2nd start of his career. After
a poor effort when trying turf for the 1st time after the big race,
Woodford Manhattan returns to one turn on the main track and with any
improvement whatsoever off his last non-turf race he could have a big say in
the outcome. Allrightsreserved was 2nd in the stretch two back
at this trip and stayed in 2nd when crossing the wire, in January,
then four months later on May 17 he led from the start and ended up beaten less
than a length at the end. Making his 2nd start of the meeting and at
the same distance of both runner-up finishes, Alrightsreserved should be
considered for any pick 3, pick 4 or daily double tickets we play involving
this race at the very least, but as win wagering opportunity he could leave
something to be desired as he went to post as the 6 to 5 favorite last out and
might be the prohibitive favorite again today. Ricoriatoa turned in a career best effort last out over
the track on May 9 when finishing 2nd to a runaway 4 ¾ length
winner. Likely to be even stronger in his 2nd start at the meeting
and with Migliore riding back, he’s yet another colt with a prospect for
having a big say in the outcome of the race. Wanted Alive came back from 6 months off at the end of
April for his 2nd career start and finished a fine 2nd of
8, after having to wait for room to run at a critical stage of the race. With
Dominguez riding back and with the colt stronger 2nd off the rest he
rounds out our quintet (actually sextet if you include Frenchonionsoup) of 3
year old colts and geldings who not only have a right to win today but who make
some noise in stakes races in the near future.
Race #4 - Rating = 3
#4 Uncle Indy - Fair odds 2/1 (for turf)
#1 Spurred - Fair odds 3/1 (for turf)
#10 Radical
Sabbatical - Fair odds 4/1 (for turf)
#12 Jack On
the Rocks - Fair odds 2/1 (if the race is run on dirt)
Exactas (for turf): 4 over 1,2,3,8,10 and also 1,4,10 over 1,2,3,4,8,10
#2 is Expansion, #3 is Slam Dunk and #8 is Blazing Dynamo (combined these
three have 11 runner-up finishes in their careers on the grass but only four
wins so they are okay for using on exacta tickets but don’t appear to be
good win wagers)
Exactas (for dirt): Box 11,12,13 (#11 is Even Raise, #13 is Mr. Unstoppable)
Uncle Indy moved right through his maiden and first
level allowance conditions in December and January on the turf, Velasquez up
for both wins and riding him back after a layoff, the first win of the pair
having come off a layoff so it appearing that this horse can pick up where he
left off with a win for the sizzling hot Penna barn that is 5 for 12 at the
meeting to date and that has won more than 1/3 of its races this year. Spurred
enters the race in winning form after a victory on 4/25 at the one lower
NW1X allowance level, Dominguez up then as now, as well as for another of the
horse’s four career wins. Having put “A” races back-to-back
previously and having won over this course earlier in his career, by 5 ¼
lengths, Spurred can take advantage of a ground saving trip from the rail and
could earn career win #5 today. Radical Sabbatical has four runner-up finishes in his career
and just two wins but one of those wins came here at Belmont last fall at this
1 1/16 mile turf trip, by 6 ½ lengths. Coming off a fine runner-up
effort at this NW2X level last out with Prado up, Edgar also responsible for
his last win, in February at the one lower NW1X level, Radical Sabbatical is
sending all the signals that he should be a part of the exacta at the very least
in this situation. If the race moves off the turf and onto the main track, Jack On the
Rocks is the one to beat because he is
likely the one to catch, having wired the field very easily one before last
here at Belmont at the NW1X level at 7 furlongs under Chavez, who rides today.
Last out at this level the colt never saw the lead and so faded to 4th
after pressing the pace in 2nd in the early stages, but in this
field (after scratches) he could have the early lead all to himself once again
from the start and never look back.
Race #5 - Rating = 3
#11 Precursor - Fair odds 2/1 (for turf or dirt)
#3 Get Stormy - Fair odds 3/1 (for turf)
#4 So It Goes - Fair odds 3/1 (for turf)
#5 Le Grand
Cru - Fair odds 3/1 (for dirt)
#14 Joe
Corrigan - Fair odds 3/1 (for dirt)
For exactas on turf (although none are specifically recommended) use the
three listed above and also consider #5Le Grand Cru, #7 Parc des Princes, #9
Western Influence, #10 Sette E Mezzo & #13 Hangingbyathread.
For exactas on dirt (although none are specifically recommended) use the
three listed above and also consider #1a Haitian Sensation , #12 Alexandros and
#15 Overextended.
Precursor may turn out to be a “KEY
LONGSHOT” bet on the card, starting at 15 to 1 odds in spite of having
won his last race by 12 lengths. Mike Luzzi rode him to that victory, over the
main track here at Belmont on 5/3, a race scheduled for turf originally. Having
been off for 2 months prior to the win, Precursor has improving to do, and as
he won at the maiden special weight level he fits fine at this first allowance
condition. More pluses in his favor are that trainer Albertrani has been first
or second with 14 of 21 starters at the meeting to date and as a grandson of
Danehill he should take to the turf like a duck to water if the race stays on
the grass. Get
Stormy was in front by 5 and was going
to win at this level in a turf race in March but saw something that made him
duck in, resulting in losing the jockey. After 2 months off he came back over
this course on 5/20 and rallied to miss by a half length after having to wait
for room to run at the critical stage of the race, so making his 2nd
start off the layoff and with just a bit better racing luck he could be the one
getting his picture taken in the winners’ circle today. So It Goes also finished 2nd over the course
recently, on May 14, at the level and following 7 months off, so he too
has a right to improve and to win
just as he did 13 months ago when breaking his maiden here on the Belmont turf.
Le
Grand Cru was a length and one-half behind
Get Stormy in that 5/20 race here at Belmont, his turf and two turn debut, so
with Castellano riding back, up for his maiden win as well, this colt could
take the needed step forward and post the upset today. Joe Corrigan gets a nice look if the race is moved to dirt,
being entered for the main track only and winning by a neck two back in a race
scheduled for turf and moved to dirt as this may be, jockey Maylan Studart in
the saddle then, now, and for the gelding’s last victory as well, in
March. With two of his four career wins coming in one turn routes as this race
will be if moved to the dirt, Joe Corrigan must be strongly considered as a win
contender.
Race #6 - Rating = 3
The True North Handicap
#3 Two Step
Salsa - Fair odds 3/2
Exactas: Box 3,2 (Silver Edition)
Also play 3 over 1,6 (#1 is Benny the Bull, #6 is Fabulous Strike)
Rather than state why I think Benny the Bull and Fabulous Strike
can’t win, I’ll just tell you why I think Two Step
Salsa is going to win, and why he is a
“SINGLE” (the only horse to use one a leg on consecutive race
tickets such as the Pick 3 and Pick 4), as well as why I feel strongly that he
is a “LOW ODDS OVERLAY” win bet on the card at anywhere near his 3
to 1 starting odds. Two Step Salsa won the Grade 1 Godolphin
Mile in his most recent start at the end of March, a world class race with a
field of 15 including Gayego and Informed. Sitting off the pace early before
rallying for that win as well as for his win before that at this six furlong
distance in a 150K non-graded stakes, Two Step Salsa shipped over from Dubai in
mid-May and has put in two strong workouts since that demonstrate he is in the
same form he was when winning those two races. With Garrett Gomez taking the
call and with the ability to sit off the lead in a race that could have a very
hot (and hotly contested) early pace scenario, the most important factor in Two
Step Salsa emerging victorious here is that he is on a nearly identical pattern
to the one that preceded Benny the Bull’s victory in this race last year,
Benny having won the Dubai Golden Shaheen on the World Cup card in March then
taking the same 2 ½ months off before winning this race.
Race #7 - Rating = 3
The Just A Game Stakes
#6 Modern
Look - Fair odds 2/1
#1 Carribean
Sunset - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Forever
Together - Fair odds 5/2
#3 Captain's
Lover - Fair odds 4/1
Modern Look was coming back from 9 months off on March
13 when racing the taxing (and tactical) distance of one mile on turf in a
non-graded stakes in California yet she still nearly won, leading late and
beaten under a length on the wire. Ignoring the race that led to the layoff and
necessitated her coming to the U.S. to run on Lasix, Modern Look won an
important Group 2 stakes in England with a purse of $200K prior to that at the
same mile turf trip as this race. With a 4 for 8 career record (excluding the
pre-layoff race) and likely to move forward significantly in form in her 2nd
stateside start, and with the 109 Equibase Speed Figure earned the same as Forever
Together earned when winning the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland last
fall, higher than the 103 Forever Together earned winning the Breeders’
Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall, it appears that Modern Look has a big shot
to post the upset win today. Carribean Sunset also makes her 2nd start after a lengthy layoff from September
to May, getting a lot out of her runner-up effort on May 2 in the Grade 3
Beaugay Stakes over this course. Having defeated males at this trip last summer
in a Group 3 stakes in Ireland and beaten just a pair of heads and a neck last May in the $630,000 Irish 1000
Guineas, Carribean Sunset has proven time and again that she’s a top
class turf start and must be strongly respected when considering our wagers
involving this race. It is very tough to rank a horse of the caliber Forever
Together as low as third on the list of
win contenders here but really she’s just as good as the other three
contenders if she and they run their best races, not a standout as her
prohibitive odds will suggest. Captain’s Lover was purchased by Team Valor some time following her 4th place
effort in the Group 1 Prix de a Foret, versus males, in October, which followed
a sharp win versus males in the Group 3 Prix du Pin in September. Having won a
group 1 race at this mile turf trip earlier in her career and with John V
riding for Pletcher, this mare with a 6 for 9 career record will likely be
flying under the radar of many a bettor and handicapper and as such she must be
considered with a shot to have a say in the outcome of this race.
Race #8 - Rating = 2
The Woody Stephens Stakes
#1a Everyday
Heroes (coupled with #1 Regal Ransom) - Fair odds 8/5
#4 Munnings - Fair odds 3/1
#2 This Ones
for Phil - Fair odds 3/1
Everyday Heroes enters the Woody Stephens a perfect
four-for-four in his career, his most recent win coming in the Grade 3 Hirsch
Jacobs Stakes on Preakness day, easily dominating by 3 ¾ lengths in
spite of having been forced to steady early. With jockey Caraballo up for the
win when riding him for the first time and accompanying him from Maryland to
New York, Everyday Heroes should run even better than last out as evidenced by
a sparkling four furlong, 46.6 best of 32 workout on June 2. With a 117
Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Jacobs that is tied with the figure This
Ones for Phil earned when 2nd in the Withers recently and with the
rest of the field nowhere nearly as fast as that figure represents, Everyday
Heroes gets a strong push to keep his perfect record intact with a win in this
race. Munnings earned a career best 104 figure last out
when leading late and ending up 2nd at the end, the fact he tired a
bit understandable as he had been away from the races since finishing 10th
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Used as a workmate for Dunkirk for most of
that one’s spring campaign (until recently), Munnings belongs at this
level to be sure by virtue of having finished third behind Vinyard Haven in the
Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga and then 2nd behind that
same colt in the Champagne Stakes in October. Therefore, with logical
improvement due in his 2nd start off the long layoff Munnings may be
the one that Everyday Heroes has to fear the most if he wants to keep his
perfect record intact. This Ones for Phil wasn’t disgraced when 2nd to Mr. Fantasy in the Withers
at the end of April, before that moved up to first via the disqualification of Big
Drama in the Swale Stakes. Although not the phenom suggested after winning the
Sunshine Millions Dash in January with a remarkable 121 figure, nevertheless
This Ones for Phil appears to be very capable of having a say in the outcome of
this race and if you play the exacta without including him you do so at your
own peril.
Race #9- Rating = 3
The Acorn Stakes
#2 Gabby's
Golden Gal - Fair odds 5/2
#8
Justwhistledixie - Fair odds 5/2
#9 Four Gifts - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 2,8,9
In trying to take the racetrack away from the incomparable Rachel
Alexandra in the early stages of the Kentucky Oaks, Gabby’s
Golden Gal ended up running the first six
furlongs on the lead in 1:11.8, much too fast a fraction for that 9 furlong
race over that racetrack. However, the interior speed figure that Gabby’s
Golden Gal earned was around 118, which means that while still leading at the
mile mark, the point at which this Acorn Stakes ends, she ran FASTER than any
horse in this field has run, EVER! On the cut back to one turn and with two
strong workouts over the track following the Oaks, this gal who destroyed the
field in the Sunland Park Oaks by 13 lengths prior to the Kentucky Oaks and who
is trained by Bob Baffert could
post the upset in the Acorn as a KEY LONGSHOT as she opens at 15 to 1 odds. Justwhistledixie is the one most likely to be sitting in 2nd
or third as Gabby’s Golden Gal goes about her business on the lead or off
the pace of Dream Play, Justwhistledixie having won five in a row including two
graded stakes and fortunately passing on the Kentucky Oaks in anticipation of
running in this race. With a win in her only start previously at this one turn
mile trip and with Leparoux riding her back after being up for victory in the
G2 Bonnie Miss in her last start, if Justwhistledixie repeats or improves upon
the 115 figure effort she put forth at this trip in the Grade 2 Davona Dale in
March off a layoff very similar to the one she’s coming back from today
she certainly can win. Four Gifts returned from
2 months off in May and after being crushed by Rachel Alexandra in the Fair
Grounds Oaks and won the Eight Belles Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard very
nicely by 3 lengths. That 7 ½ furlong trip being very similar to this
one-turn mile, and with improving to do in her 2nd start off the
short rest, Four Gifts rounds out our trio of contenders in the Acorn, noting
however that she would need to improve a bit off her career best 107 figure
effort in order to run to the 115 or 120 figure that the winner of this race is
likely to earn.
Race #10- Rating = 2
The Manhattan Handicap
#11 Lauro - Fair odds 4/1 (win and place bet recommended at
potentially high odds)
#9 Cosmonaut - Fair odds 4/1
#5 Gio Ponti - Fair odds 4/1
#1 Court
Vision - Fair odds 4/1
Exactas: 11 with 1,2,5,9,12 and 1,2,5,9,12 THEN ALSO 9 with 1,2,5,12 and
1,2,5,12 with 9
#2 is Champs Elysees (not 2b Zambezi Sun), #12 is Cowboy Cal
Notes: With both Champs Elysees and Zambezi Sun having Leparoux named to
ride and knowing Juddmonte rarely runs one of its horses against another, it is
likely one of the pair will be scratched.
Additionally, the only reason in the world that a $20K claimer like
Optimer is entered in this race is to be the “Rabbit” for his
stablemate Court Vision, both owned by IEAH Stables. This is a legal maneuver
more often used in Europe than in North America and the most important thing to
note when finding a “rabbit” in a race is that horses in addition
to the one that shares common ownership can and often do benefit from the
“rabbit”.
Lauro should not be the 15 to 1 that she starts at but there is no complaint
on this end, as this top notch turf star who won the Grade 2 Sky Classic Stakes
last October at Woodbine then who finished 2nd in the G2 Red Smith
Handicap in November can post the upset in the Manhattan Handicap. Following
the Red Smith, Lauro went back to Europe for the winter, returning in the G2
Dixie Stakes on Preakness day, setting the pace and battling gamely all the way
to the wire, beaten a neck for the third spot and 2 lengths for the win. With
two workouts at Belmont since raced and likely to be a lot tighter 2nd
off the 5 ½ month layoff, as well as returning to the a longer distance
than the Dixie and one that he’s better suited for. Lauro fits on all
counts to be first, or at least second, thereby adding to his 7 for 11 record
of finishing in the top two in his career to date. Cosmonaut came back from 10 months off to win the
Grade 3 Fort Marcy Stakes on this turf course on May 2, and so this former
Grade 1 placed (by a neck) horse who gets Lezcano back after being up for the 1st
time in victory last out must be considered strongly for any and all wagers we
make involving this race because he also has been first or second in a majority
(15 of 26) of his turf races. Gio Ponti comes into the
Manhattan off a win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile in March, having won the
Virginia Derby last July at this 10 furlong distance as well as possessing a
2-1-0 record on this turf course in three tries on it. With Gomez having ridden
him to four of his six career wins including the Virginia Derby and with Gio
Ponti flattered when Kilroe third place finisher Dixie Chatter came back to win
the Arcadia Handicap, we have yet another grade 1 turf star to consider as a
contender for all the marbles. Court Vision, as previously
mentioned, gets the benefit of a “rabbit” to ensure an honest early
pace, one that benefits his late running style. Although he has finished no
better than third in three races since leaving the three-year-olds only ranks
last fall, all three were grade one events and there is no disgraces in
finishing third behind Einstein or Kip Deville as Court Vision did in the two
races that were run on turf. Having won over this turf course last fall in the
G2 Jamaica Handicap when Gio Ponti and hopefully with a brisk pace to
compliment his closing kick, Court Vision rounds out or quartet of contenders
for the major share of the purse in the Manhattan.
Race #11- Rating = 2
The Belmont Stakes
#4 Summer
Bird - Fair odds 9/2
#2 Dunkirk - Fair odds 5/1
#7 Mine That
Bird - Fair odds 4/1
#1 Chocolate
Candy - Fair odds 5/1
#6 Charitable
Man - Fair odds 9/1
$1
exactas:
2,4,7
over all (cost is $27)
2,4,7
over 1,2,3,4,6,7,8 (cost is $18)
1,3,6,8
over 2,6,7 (cost is $12)
#3
is Mr. Hot Stuff, #8 is Flying Private
Summer Bird finished sixth in the Derby after running in
16th position for the first six furlongs and still in 15th
with just one-quarter of a mile to run. Attempting to maneuver inside on the
turn and finding Mine That Bird was in high gear and would get the rail
spot he was going for, Summer Bird then angled out seven paths wide in
the stretch and kicked in pretty well to end up sixth, losing the photo finish
for fifth with Chocolate Candy (and
the $60,000 paycheck) by inches. Prior to the Derby, Summer
Bird earned a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure when closing from last
of 10 to finish third in the Arkansas Derby. Summer Bird gets a
change in jockey to Kent Desormeaux, whose last ride in the Belmont
before Big Brown’s disappointing effort last year was a fine second place
finish on Medaglia d’Oro in the 2002 Belmont. Summer Bird will race with blinkers for the first time in the Belmont to help
him focus on the task at hand and be better positioned early in the race. Like
the Derby
winner, Summer Bird is a son of Birdstone and therefore has a good
opportunity to post the upset and win the Belmont.
Dunkirk did not stop trying in the Derby although compromised after
stumbling a few strides after the start then jostled pretty badly and forced to
steady back to 10th in the early stages. As a grandson of classic
winners (1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy
and 1990 Derby
winner Unbridled), Dunkirk is definitely
bred to handle the mile and one-half Belmont
trip. Rested five weeks in the same manner as four of the last six winners of
the Belmont, and with a better early position in the Belmont than
he had in the Derby, Dunkirk has a big chance to return to the
competitive graded stakes form shown when earning a career best 111figure in
finishing second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby.
Mine That Bird proved his upset win in the Kentucky Derby was
no fluke when in the Preakness he
rallied seven paths wide after being forced to wait for room to run at the
quarter pole then passed everyone but the filly to finish second. Beaten just a
length by Rachel Alexandra, Mine that Bird nevertheless improved off his
Derby effort to earn a new career best 119 figure. Reunited with Calvin
Borel for the Belmont and being a son of
2004 Belmont winner Birdstone as well as
a grandson of Smart Strike (sire of 2007 Belmont
runner-up Curlin), Mine That Bird certainly fits on all counts to run
well enough to win the Belmont.
Chocolate Candy rallied from 15th with three-quarters of a
mile to run in the Derby
and ended up passing nearly half the 19 horse field to end up fifth at the
wire, a neck in front of Summer Bird. Although he regressed from the 112
figure earned when second in the Santa Anita Derby to a 96 figure in the
Kentucky Derby, Chocolate Candy proved his mettle in top company
prior to the Santa Anita Derby with back-to-back stakes wins in the California
Derby and El Camino Real Derby. Jockey Garrett Gomez returns to the
saddle for the Belmont, having ridden Chocolate Candy
to victory in the Real Quiet Stakes last November. Returning to the form
shown in the Santa Anita Derby and as a grandson of 1977 Triple
Crown winner Seattle Slew, Chocolate
Candy is another that could have a big say in the outcome of the Belmont.
Charitable Man has won all three of his career starts on a
conventional dirt track, including his most recent effort on May 9 when
victorious in the Peter Pan Stakes. Having won two races at Belmont and
on a pattern for more improvement off the career best 99 figure he earned
winning the Peter Pan, Charitable Man also gets the services of
Alan Garcia. With Alan having been in the saddle for all three of his career
wins and the jockey that rode Da’ Tara to a $79 upset win in last
year’s Belmont, Charitable Man must be taken very seriously
when considering contenders to run well in the Belmont.
For exotic wagers, such as
the trifecta and superfecta, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained pair of Luv Gov
and Flying Private cannot be totally discounted. Luv Gov, a son
of 2004 Belmont runner-up Ten Most Wanted, earned a then career best 103
figure winning one race before rallying from 12th to eighth in the Preakness,
while Flying Private rallied from 10th to fourth in the Preakness
to earn a career best 115 figure. Of the Nick Zito trained pair of Brave
Victory and Miner’s Escape, Brave Victory gets slight
preference coming into the Belmont
off a nice rally from 17 lengths back early to end up third in the Peter
Pan. However, the 91 figure Brave Victory earned in that effort
seems out of touch with the main contenders in the Belmont. Miner’s Escape
won the Federico Tesio Stakes on the Preakness undercard, but the
90 figure earned is not much to look at. That being said, it still may be
difficult to forget that Zito’s two recent winners of the Belmont
were completely overlooked by the public, with Da’ Tara returning $79
last year and with Birdstone paying $74 in winning the 2004 Belmont. Mr.
Hot Stuff rounds out the Belmont field, having finished 15th
in the Derby in his most recent start, his best career effort just prior to
that then third, earning a career best 111 figure when a length behind
runner-up Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby. With a style
that suggests he may be able to pass quite a few runners in the late stages of
the Belmont,
Mr. Hot Stuff is another to be considered for our exacta tickets and
other similar exotic wagers.
Race #12- Rating = 1
#1 Storm Hope - Fair odds 9/5 (for turf)
#14 African
Knight - Fair odds 9/5 (for dirt)
Storm Hope gets the ground saving rail and need only
show logical improvement from his 2 year old form, making his first start as a
3 year old. When last seen last October, in a turf race, he rallied from 10
lengths back to finish 2nd of 12 and with a good workout from the
gate coming into the race and with Dominguez riding for the rock solid Barclay
Tagg barn he appears to be the one to beat with a repeat of last fall’s
effort. African
Knight is entered for the main track
only so is the one to beat if the race comes off the turf, running a huge race
in his career debut on 5/2 when rallying from 3rd to lead late and
ending up 2nd of 8 at the end. With physical and mental improvement
likely in his 2nd career start, Castellano up now as then, and
making his 2nd start here at Belmont, African Knight should be very
tough to beat if the race goes on the main track.
Race #13- Rating = 2
#6
Masterofthehouse - Fair odds 5/2 (for turf)
#4 Manchild - Fair odds 5/2 (for turf)
#14 Wanda's
Double - Fair odds 5/2 (for dirt)
##16 Lincoln
Road - Fair odds 5/2 (for dirt)
Masterofthehouse opens at 8 to 1 odds while Manchild starts at 2 to 1 odds, a disparity we have a
duty to try to capitalize on, because both horses won at this 6 furlong trip
over this turf course recently, both earning the identical 85 Equibase Speed
Figure. With both expected to move up now that they’ve figured out what
is expected of them and both having proven a liking for this course and
distance, they could come together at the wire, both perfect fits at this
non-winners of 2 claiming level after breaking their maidens in maiden claiming
races at the same level. Wanda’s Double and Lincoln
Road are both entered for the main
track only, Wanda’s Double getting alight preference making his 3rd
start off a 6 month layoff with a significant jockey change to Dominguez off a
fine runner-up effort to improve upon. Lincoln Road comes back from 5 ½ months off,
losing Dominguez to Wanda’s Double but picking up Coa first off the Brown
claim, the colt having rallied from just off the pace last July to win in his 2nd
career start so perhaps in the right place at the right time to capitalize if
likely early leader Wanda’s Double can’t go all the way in front.