Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800.
#2 Royal Emerald - Fair odds 2/1
We start the closing day card with a key bet opportunity on Royal Emerald in this 6 horse field, who opens at 8/1. He's already a winner at the meet, his only race ever over this surface, and at this distance, in April. He should fire a big shot after 2 months of rest with Castro riding back for the unconscious Molinaro, who brought us a $17 winner last Sunday. The jock and trainer are 8 for 19 together, and with the top early speed in the race to boot it's Royal Emerald's race to lose here.
#6 E C Lady - Fair odds 2/1
#3 Que Facil Corazon - Fair odds 2/1
#4 Radiant Smile - Fair odds 2/1
Exacta: Box 6,3 Box 6,4 (split the favorites)
#2 Go On Baby, #5 Rosanda and #7 Marty's Z all figure to battle on the lead, leaving only 4 contenders to win, and one of them, Planoncometbeboppin has already lost twice to Que Facil Corazon so doesn't have much of a shot here. E C Lady can win and post the slight upset here. She is 8 for 24 on grass in her career, and won the last time she ran in an optional claiming race on this surface. After irrelevant races in Southern California and in a stakes race, back at the level she belongs at here she offers tremendous value opening at 8/1. Que Facil Corazon is at the top of her game, with 6 wins in 16 starts this year and last. The only thing that really separates her from E C Lady is that she opens at 9/5 as opposed to 8/1. Radiant Smile is 3 for 3 since blinkers were added and since she was switched to this track. She likes to run, fits well at the level, and should be very competitive.
#5 Private Aviator - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Lytle Creek - Fair odds 4/1
Private Aviator won one before last after 4 months off, regressed last out, and can rebound to top form today with Baze getting back on, up for his last win but not for the loss last out. Lytle Creek loses baze after winning smartly for Lage after the claim, and that's actually a good thing, as instead of the 6/5 he went off last out he opens at 8/1, with just about as good a shot to win as the top choice.
#8 Geronimo - Fair odds 5/2
#7 Handyman Bill - Fair odds 4/1
Exactas: Box 7,8 with 2,5,7,8 (#2 is Ninebanks, #5 is Surprise Halo)
I figure that Ninebanks and Surprise Halo will both go off at low prices, so they can be considered for your pick 3 and 6 action and the exacta above but their opportunities for win bet profit compared to the two listed, who both open at double digit odds, are minimal.
I think we can beat favorite Night Life, who is 0 for 2 at the distance and who hasn't won past a mile yet. Geronimo ships up from So Cal for the leading trainer down there, Doug O' Neill, and after a huge sprint prep to stakes horses Echo Eddie and Ecstatic, stretching out to two turns he's going to be tough at a big price, opening at 12/1. He reeled off five straight wins earlier this year and at the end of last year in his native Chile, and O' Neill is not only 3 for 5 with his shippers at the meet but wins 1/4 of the time when he sends a horse long off a sprint as he's doing here. Handyman Bill shipped to So. Cal. one before last and won nicely, beating Stratus, who came back to win. Last out he was sent to the pace, not his preferred running style, and the result was that he tired. He'll he taken just off the pace here, and opens impossible to ignore at 10/1 considering he was 2/1 and 4/5 in his last two and ran well in both.
#6 National Alert - Fair odds 5/2
#2 Bonfire of Soul - Fair odds 5/2
#7 Nellie L - Fair odds 3/1
National Alert is a 2nd time starter from the barn of Greg Gilchrist, who hardly ever wins with his debut types, but who wins a lot with his maidens after their first starts. He ran third last out and seems ready to win with likely improvement. Bonfire of Soul lost a tough photo by a neck last out in his debut after breaking slowly, so with a clean break and perhaps an easy lead he might be a tough target to run down. Nellie L is a first time starter from the good Lage Barn, who gets it's first timers to win or place about 45% of the time, a very high percentage that suggests that these types are ready to run when they hit the track.
No straight (Win/place/show) bets here. With Soul of Kindness and Blaine Elegant (adding blinkers) likely to sizzle on the early lead, we're not left with many choices to play with any confidence, so my preference is to pass. For our pick 3, 4 and six plays, we'll use three of the rest: #2 Miss Flor, #3 Badgett's Memo and #6 Wait'tilotisseesus. Otherwise, pass.
#7 Not Accountable - Fair odds 3/1
#8 Surprizetome - Fair odds 3/1
#1 I'm No Louie - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 1,7,8
Another race with a hot pace, this time courtesy of Positive, Banish The Thought and Brite Bounty. Not Accountable's last race can be ignored as it was on turf and this race is not. He was claimed one before last by Marshall, who wins or places 50% right off the claim, and for the purpose of handicapping this race this is the gelding's first start off that claim. He was 4/5 versus similar one before last and 6/5 when 2nd one before that, but opens at 8/1 here. Surprizetome ran on for 2nd from last in his last race to wire to wire winner Brite Bounty, who won't get the same trip today so we'll figure this tough gelding, who has 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in 32 career dirt races, for a big piece. I'm No Louie won by 4 last out with Baze up at this distance,his 2nd top race in a row, and although too low for a win bet as he opens at 5/2 we have to use him in the exacta as well as in any consecutive race bets (like the pick 3,4 and 6) that we make.
#1 Dixielands Devil - Fair odds 5/2
#3 Cappucino Kid - Fair odds 5/2
#7 Late Night Out - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 1,3 Box 1,7
Dixielands Devil is a great play here, opening at 12/1. Although he pulled up last out, nothing is wrong, as he comes back quickly and at the same class level, first off the claim by solid trainer Glatt, who wins 20% of the time right off the claim. With a good inside post to save ground before rallying he has a good shot to run as well or better then he did in the two starts prior to the claim, both wins on the grass, one here at BM. Cappucino Kid lost a tough photo by a neck last out over the course, his first ever race at this claiming level, and with a "WIN" type record of 7 for 19, with no seconds, in his career he would be no surprise if winning here. Late Night Out ran big last out in his first race in Northern Cal. after shipping up from So. Cal., stalking in third, getting the lead, and losing 2nd by a nose on the wire. He figures to be as competitive or more so today.
There is nothing of interest in this cal-bred 8K maiden claimer. Truthfully, if playing the pick 3, 4, or 6 I'd try to use the "ALL" button here, and then hope for the biggest price in the field to win.
Race #10 Rating = 1
#6 Sassy Won - Fair odds 2/1
#8 Spectacular Fashion - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 6,8
Sassy Won runs first off the claim by J.T. Marshall, who knows who to claim and get improvement out of them, as his off-claim record in the past year is 5-4-3 in 19 races. He goes immediately to his #1 jock in Schvaneveldt, who wins or places 50% of the times he rides for John, and with a record of 3 for 6 this year, tops in the field, Sassy Won should add to the trainer's record as well as his own today, shooting for his 4th straight win. Spectacular Fashion rallied from far far back, maybe 20 lengths out, last out to get third at 50/1. He gets a huge jock change from Rochabrun to Castro and since that was his first turf route in ages he has improvement to show us on that count as well.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr15@insightbb.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.