Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800.
#3 One Troy Ounce - Fair odds 2/1
#4 Lazar- Fair odds 2/1
Favorite Affirm Cat is vulnerable, a bad claim by Spawr last Aug. for $62,500 and now racing for $3,200 after running badly since. Forget him. One Troy Ounce drops to this level for the first time since last July, a sharp win, and with his early speed at this level he's bound to go wire to wire here just as he did that day, or last June here at BM. Lazar runs off the reclaim by Ward, a sharp sign, cutting back to one turn, where he ran 2nd by a head one back over the track at the level. Count him very much in back where he belongs.
#5 Ching A Dara - Fair odds 3/1
Exactas: Box 5,1 (Dienekes) Box 5,6 (Cheyenne's Boy) Box 5,7 (Long Point)
Vulnerable 2nd favorite here, as Lawn Mower drops from 16K to 6,250 off a layoff and two bad races, dead last in each. Ching A Dara offers value that Dienekes does not. Dienekes open at even money with a 2 for 17 career record but Ching A Dara opens at 12/1 coming off a sharp win just like the favorite does, for a trainer that wins better then 25% of the time with all starters, and 1/3 of the time in claiming races. Rollins has already ridden a winner for this trainer too.
For any doubles or pick threes you are interested in playing use #2 Halo Cat and #6 El Dorado Shooter. The latter will be the one to catch and the former the one to hold late, but they are the two favorites, both legitimate at their low prices, and there's no value betting either of them to win.
#7 Optic Diversion - Fair odds 5/2
#8 Set For More - Fair odds 3/1
#2 Ghostly Minister - Fair odds 7/2
Exacta: Box 2,7,8
Optic Diversion is 6 for 6 in the money on grass, and after a badly needed sprint prep to get the cobwebs out following 6 months off, looks set to run well on the grass for top trainer Morey, with Warren getting on and with a big 6 furlong work since raced. Set for More rallied to get right up to be able to win late but was cut off and moved up via a dq. He was 2/1 that day but opens at 9/2 here, more then good enough for strong consideration for a win bet and as a win contender here with a clean run like he had when winning on the grass in April. Ghostly Minster moves from the poor 10 post to the good 2 post, and that could easily make up for the 2 lengths he was beaten last out. He ran third before that at the level on grass and with 7 in the money finishes in 10 career grass races on this course has a good shot to hit the board at a price at least. I'm going to take a stand against one of the favorites, Sands of Time, as I don't think he can win back to back.
#2 T S Eliot - Fair odds 2/1
A very well bred son of STorm Cat, T S Eliot has been working like he means business for his debut, and ships up from So. Cal. to face an easy field for Harty, one for one at the meet with these shippers. The dam of the colt has had one of her 2 foals to race win first out and go 2 for 5 in its career, and this one should add to those totals today.
#5 Rosenstein - Fair odds 5/2
#3 Makam - Fair odds 5/2
#11 Her Emminence - Fair odds 5/2
These three come out of the same race, run under identical conditions on 5/25. Rosenstein opens at the best price of the three although she was beaten just a nose for the show in her first race in blinkers and 2nd on grass, and should improve nicely today with the experience. Makam ran 2nd from far back in that race, her first in Northern Cal., and figures strongly right back. Her Emminence ran on for third in that race with a decent effort, her first maiden claimer ever, and except for an outside post should run as well or better here.
#9 Jubilation - Fair odds 3/1
Exactas: Box 9,1 (Race The Dawn) Box 9,7 (Millennium Glory) Box 9,12 (Shek O Prospect)
Jubilation shipped up from So Cal last out and raced at this level for the first time, finishing 3rd at 10/1. He just needs slight improvement to win this and is a nice win bet as well as exacta key with the three others that all have decent form.
#5 Nu Cat - Fair odds 2/1
Nu Cat stands out here, as a last out maiden winner (in his 2nd career start) who fits perfectly at this non-winners of 2 lifetime level. He was claimed out of his debut, a race he ran 2nd in after breaking slowly, and should continue to improve on the way to his 2nd straight win.
#2 Beauty Go Leor - Fair odds 6/1
#9 Continentalcolonel - Fair odds 6/1
#6 Irvington - Fair odds 4/1
#3 Moscow Mac - Fair odds 4/1
Exacta: Box 2,9 with 2,3,6,9
With Modest Man and Hopso both battling on the early lead, two longshots get a big look and both can be bet as overlays. Beauty Go Leor ships in from TUP and into the barn of a trainer that wins 35% of his claiming race. All of this horses career wins and all but 2 of his 2nd place finishes have come on the grass, and one before last he was beaten by less then he was wide on the turn, a race that when repeated here has him running very well after saving ground from the inside, opening at 12/1. Also opening at double digit odds is Continentalcolonel who won his last start, at this distance on dirt. Warren was up for the first time on him for that win, his first start in Northern California, and he too is saddled by a top notch trainer, Knight, who wins 20%of the time in claiming races. Warren will drop the horse back from the outside and be coming on strongly late. Irvington and Moscow Mac both shots, with both the former and latter coming off 3rd place finishes under similar circumstances in their last starts. They open at 6/1 and 7/2, respectively, worth a look as overlays but not offering nearly as much value as either of the top two selections for win bets.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800.
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr15@insightbb.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.