Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800.
#6 Phonetastic - Fair odds 3/1
Phonetastic is an intriguing play. She was sent off at 3/1 in her debut at this level a month ago, was claimed out of that race, and appears back at the level with new blinkers. We'll guess that maybe trainer Johnson, who does very well when he adds blinkers to his charges, has figures out that is just what the doctor ordered to get this gal to run.
#3 Twin Stripes - Fair odds 7/2
#10 Celestial Sea - Fair odds 4/1
#4 Sassy Six - Fair odds 9/2
Exacta: Box 3,4,10
Twin Stripes ran a winning race last out when 2nd at 4/1 over the track after setting all the early pace, and why she is 8/1 on the line here is anyone's guess, but it's fine with me as she presents a nice betting opportunity. Celestial Sea ran 2n7d last fall over the track at the level, and shipping in from Indiana Downs where she was claimed last out could duplicate or better that result today. Sassy Six was also claimed last out, from a nice 2nd place finish over the track, an effort decent enough to get her a nice piece once again at the minimum, at odds too high to ignore (12/1 on the morning line).
#9 Beirut - Fair odds 5/1
#12 Cat's Craft - Fair odds 5/2
#6 Mcgeever - Fair odds 6/1
Beirut is bred top and bottom to run BIG first out, as all seven of the dam's foals to race won or placed in their debuts, and he's by top early win sire Elusive Quality to boot. He's lodged in a low profile barn, gets Court to ride, and opens at 15/1, well worth the risk. Cat's Craft takes the most important drop in racing, into a maiden claimer for the first time. He's got a big shot here but can't be bet to win as Day rides and he opens at 3/1, likely to be overbet. Use him in any exotics you play at the minimum. Mcgeever, like the top pick, opens at double digit odds. He comes from the loins of top sire Tale of The Cat, whose progeny are winning 26% of the time first out. Lay is a low profile and solid trainer and like the top pick this horse is ridden by a solid Kentucky Circuit rider, D' Amico, so like the top choice is worth a small wager at the minimum as well.
#5 Miss Royal Dancer - Fair odds 5/1
#9 Tejano's Echo - Fair odds 5/1
Exactas: Box 5,3 (Certified Approval) Box 5,9 (Tejano's Edge) Box 5,10 (Risque'betty)
Risque'betty is reluctantly used here and in the exactas only, as she's a horrible play opening at 7/5, dropping from 15K to 5K off a decent effort by a top trainer, suggesting that the connections just want to get rid of her. 2nd favorite Certified Approval won last out but has never won back to back, so we'll just use him in the exacta as well. Miss Royal Dance won 2 back and five back, and getting a jock change to Lumpkins could run another big one. Her last win on this circuit came at 14/1, and she opens at 15/1 so offers a nice value once again to go along with her decent shot to win. Tejano's Edge ran 2nd last out, and won two before that, so has no problem with recent form. Both good races came since the trainer change to Gogel, and with a morning line of 8/1 she deserves a big look as well.
For consecutive race bets like the pick 3, use #7 Admiral Slew, very reluctantly I might at, as he opens as the 7/5 favorite. We wouldn't use a low priced favorite in a maiden claimer, but this is a maiden allowance race, and any of his last 3 turf routes if repeated in this weak field should see him posing for pictures today.
#3 Partner's Bite - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Whereisspringfield - Fair odds 7/2
#6 Rinkatink - Fair odds 5/1
#12 Hacoda - Fair odds 5/1
Exactas: Box 3,5 with 3,5,6,12
This race is all about pace. 1,2,8,9,10 and 11 all need the lead to win and the early fractions should be so hot none should be around late. #4 Do It My Way just scares me (and not in a good way), as he was claimed for 25K in April, dropped to 17,500 off the claim, won, was claimed again, and now drops to 12,500. This just doesn't make sense. Partner's Bite has the kick and the recent form to run big. He opens at 8/1 and has won or placed in 6 of 12 career starts, making him dependable as well. Whereisspringfield rallied to win from far back on dirt last out, with Albarado up, who rides back. That same late kick makes him a nice contender here. Rinkatink comes back from 8 months off, having won the last time he came back from a layoff, has tried the turf before, and won the last two times he sprinted. With a 10/1 line he too has a say here. Hacoda opens at 15/1, way to high to ignore considering that Greta gets back on. Greta was up for her last two wins, last August and September, both with big late kicks, and this gelding rounds out the four good priced contenders in what could be a very profitable race.
(Turf Only)
#2 Serena's Lady - Fair odds 3/1
#11 Willow Wind - Fair odds 3/1
#1 Persimmon Ridge - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: 1,2,11 over 1,2,8,11
Serena's Lady had a badly needed start after 6 months off, and won under similar conditions last July in her 2nd career start, on the grass, with a big late kick. Sellers stays on after getting to know her last out and with an inside post to save ground before rallying she's got a more then decent shot. Willow Wind runs first off the claim by top trainer Amoss, who wins 1/3 of the time off the claim. Tom's main jock Borel takes the call, and not only did the filly win last out by 5 lengths on dirt, but she's won on grass as well. Persimmon Ridge rallied to lead at the top of the lane last out then hung a bit to end up 2nd over the course. Albarado rides her back and with a better timed ride or a little less hang she can win, but is not the best win bet of the three contenders, opening at 3/1.
#3 Baby Lets Cruise - Fair odds 9/2 - across the board
#9 Chiramoya (1-8-3 record) and #10 Yuki No Princess (1-6-6 record) both can run 2nd, but we're getting so much value on Baby Lets Cruise by playing her across the board any exactas using the other two seem unnecessary. Baby Lets Cruise stumbled last out over the track at the level at 15/1, losing all chance. Borel rode her that day, and rides her back here, picking her over his main Trainer Amoss' horse Holy Bubbette, very rare for Cal. Baby Let's Cruise 2nd race back can be ignored as well, as that was at Keeneland and she never got close to the pace where she likes to run. Before that she ran 2nd at this allowance condition, with Borel up, at 10/1, a race that when repeated of improved upon here gives her a big edge over many in here.
(Turf Only)
#9 Poise - Fair odds 5/2
#2 Some Came Running - Fair odds 7/2
Exactas: Box 2,9 with 2,9,11,12 (11 On The Fritz, 12 Paige's Boo)
Poise has a turf win, and a sprint win, so running in today's turf sprint should be right up her alley. She should be in the right spot off the fast early pace as she was when winning in February in her last one turn race, and with a 12/1 line for a trainer (Proctor) that wins 1/3 of all of his races, she's a potential key bet on the card. Some Came Running lost a tough photo by a nose last out under identical conditions over the track, with Court riding, who not only rides her back but was up for her last win as well. Also opening at big odds, 8/1, she gets a long look too.
#13 Noyana - Fair odds 3/1
#11 Wild Enjoyment - Fair odds 3/1
Noyana drops to this level for the 1st time, with a jock that doesn't usually ride here aboard, for a trainer who does very well when he saddles horses going off at 5/1 or more, which is the situation here. The filly won going two turns in February in an effort that makes her competitive here with a repeat. Wild Enjoyment ran 2nd under identical conditions last out in her first race at the level, the same drop the top choice is taking today, and she figures right back.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. More information is available by calling (800) 334-3800
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr15@insightbb.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.