Guide to Ratings:
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
Note: We had a big day on Thursday, and I hope you cashed a few, as the top choice on the report won 3 of 8, giving us a flat bet profit just on playing top choices to win. Good Luck Saturday.
#2 Riviera Dance - Fair odds 2/1 - win/place bet
6 Capt'nemos has little to no chance based on recent from an a trainer winless at the meet. The other four, excluding the listed choice, love to run 2nd and third, as their combined career record is 4-14-11 in 68 races. All are poor bets to win, especially favorite Gindingo, 0 for 7 this year. Riviera Dance is lightly raced, with four starts, including a win and 2nd in his last 2. He won off the trainer change last out, a powerful ridden out win over the track from 10th to 1st, and can win right back with Marquez riding for a low profile trainer with a record of 2-3-0 with just 6 starters in the past 12 months.
With 4 of these, Zip It, Alexs Hot Fudge, Drumlin (the even money favorite) and Rush Creek all likely to want to go for the lead, and with no closers and no way to take a shot with any of the others, we need to skip this one.
#1 Cicero Grimes - Fair odds 5/2
#6 Mt Waverly - Fair odds 5/2
#2 Tommy Cat - Fair odds 5/2
Favorite Golden Arm (9/5 on the m.l.) is vulnerable, coming off five straight losses at 3/1 or less and with just 1 win in 15 races in the past 18 months. Cicero Grimes will appreciate the extra furlong, as his last win came here at AP last Oct. at 7 furlongs. Also, he drops back into a claimer after three allowance tries, and lost by a neck the last time he was in for a tag. At 8/1 he offers a lot of opportunity here. Mt Waverly won one before last, at a mile, so this 7 furlong trip shouldn't pose a problem. With that good recent/decent form as he won three in a row before that last start, he deserves a long look today. Tommy Cat loves to win, 7 for 18 on dirt in his career, and after running 3rd last out over the track and perhaps moving up off the claim he must be respected once again, even though with a morning line of 5/2 he opens at the lowest price of the contenders.
(Turf Only)
#5 Begin The Beguine - Fair odds 5/2
#1 Calldara - Fair odds 7/2
#3 Cat's Cat - Fair odds 7/2
Begin The Beguine is the only horse in the field to have won a turf route. As a matter of fact she's the only one to have ever run in a turf route. Why she's 6/1 on the m.l. is anyone's guess, but it's great value. She fits perfectly at this allowance level after scoring one before last at one level lower, and he last race, a dirt sprint, can be disregarded when assessing her chances today in a turf route. Calldara had a good prep for the stretchout today, following 9 months off. She won a stakes going two turns on dirt before that rest, and with Sterling back after getting to know her last out and at 10/1 as part of an uncoupled Stidham entry with Cat's Cat she gets a nice look. Cat's Cat ran on turf once, in a sprint last January, running well to be third. She followed that up with a nice route win on dirt. She didn't belong in stakes in her last two, and so back where she belongs both going two turns and on grass, plus the uncoupled entry angle in her favor, she certainly has a shot.
#4 Ya Lajwaad - Fair odds 2/1
#5 Grand Chance - Fair odds 5/2
Chalky and Predictable, these two expensive yearling purchases (600K and 700K) in top hands figure to dominate, but at low prices. Ya Lajwaad ran fourth by a neck in a key race on 5/17 from which the winner already came back to win. with blinkers and improvement he's the one to beat. Grand Chance ran 2nd in the same race and figures to be a factor from bell to wire here.
#6 Gee Don't You Wish - Fair odds 3/2
The favorite is legitimate in this 6 horse field, as Gee Don't You Wish is 2 for 4 this year, the last win, a 4 length victory, came over this track at this distance and at this level, the best last race by far of any of these. As she has won back to back twice before the hat trick today should not be a problem.
(Turf Only)
#1 Big Daddy Longlegs - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Generals Sword - Fair odds 7/2
Big Daddy Longlegs gets the beneficial rail for today's turf route. He ran 5th in a stakes last out over the course following the 35K claim by Gabriel, with Razo getting to know him, and back where he belongs today he can win with a repeat of his 5/3 race, the one he was claimed out of, and a race he won. Generals Sword stayed in a race taken off the grass last out just to get in the work. He won last summer here at AP with Emigh up, who has not ridden him since shortly after that time, a key that he's ready to run one of his better races here.
#3 For Rubies - Fair odds 5/2
#5 See How She Runs - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 3,5 with 1,3,5,7,8 (1 Raging Fever, 7 Miss Lodi, 8 Ifyouprefersilver)
For Rubies shows here the same pattern used last year by the horse and trainer before winning a stakes here at AP at 7 furlongs (today's distance), as she ran at Churchill last out and won nicely. She's still improving in her 4 year old campaign and with Perret getting on and a very solid and dependable record of 6-4-3 in her last 15 starts she's a great play opening at 5/1 today. See How She Runs also shows a key jock move, as Donnie Pettinger is in from Texas to ride just this one horse today. He's her regular pilot, and she's won 7 while placing 5 times in her 12 lifetime starts, earning over half a million dollars. She ran 2nd last year in a graded stakes similar to this one and fits on all counts to be first or 2nd again today. I can't avoid mentioning Raging Fever, who has earned 1.4 million and who opens here at 9/5, likely to be bet down. She's certainly a contender in one way or another, but her last two year record of 5-5-1 in 13 races for a horse likely to be bet down heavily concerns me, as well as he lack of a race over this strip, so except for the exacta I'll try to beat her.
#7 Liberation - Fair odds 5/2
#6 Burgandy Tower - Fair odds 5/2
Exacta: Box 6,7 with 6,7,9,11 (Gold Twine, 11 L A Bull)
Liberation opens impossible to ignore here at 12/1 on the line, a "WHY NOT" play if ever there was one. With a win and a 2nd in his last two starts, one over the track, and being 3 for 3 first or 2nd here at AP, he has a big shot, with St Julien riding him for the third straight time, for a very competent trainer, and in a very weak field.Burgandy Tower ran third last out to get back into decent form, and with two wins in April and March at the level and a career record of 7 for 23 when he hits his mark he stays there for a while, so he deserves a lot of respect at 6/1 with Douglas getting on.
My written selections & analysis for various racetracks are available daily on the Internet at www.trackmaster.com and also at www.equibase.com. Fax service is available, as is more information, by calling (800) 334-3800.
I can be reached by e mail. Send to estarr@equibase.com
Explanation of common terms.Wheel- Using a horse as a key selection with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all the other entrants.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse (or horses) in the second position in the exacta so if the horse runs second you cash the bet. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if any of them come in either of the places necessary for the bet you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, and pick 3's.