Ellis Starr
Syndicated Thoroughbred Handicapper
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Ellis Starr Syndicated Thoroughbred Handicapper |
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Wagering and Investment Strategy in the Modern Age of
Racing There are two parts
to making a profit at the races. 1.
The
selection process; Handicapping down to the contenders û form and ability. 2.
The decision
process; Wagering / Investing for a long term profit û value. Handicapping is the first of the two, but wagering is more
important towards the goal of making money at the races. The key to successful
wagering in the long term is WHEN to bet more than WHO to bet, ábecause you can make up for bad handicapping
with good wagering, but you canÆt make up for poor wagering with good
handicapping. Wagering on racing is not much different then any other kind
of investment, most specifically the stock market. Before investing in stocks,
you analyze the company/stock to determine what it is worth (expected value) then
you decide if the price offered is worth the risk based on tote board odds. 1. The selection
process has two main parts, phrased as questions as we look at each horse.
A.
Can this
horse run a race good enough to win in this situation? a. Looking
at races in its past that if repeated, or improved upon, make it a contender
today.á
i.
Look at its ability, not necessarily current.
ii.
Horses are athletes, running in cycles, with likes and
dislikes, ups and downs
B.
Can this
horse run that race here? a. Project
what it will do today.
i.
Judge current form and condition.
ii.
Judge angles and factors that contribute to a turnaround
in performance, or a decline in performance 1. Some
examples are medication, equipment, trainer, jockey and post position The overall goal of this process is to add to, or eliminate
from, our list of win contenders, until we have 1 to 5 contenders then to move
on to the decision process. 2. The Decision
Process has two main parts
A.
Assessing
the chances (probability) of your contenders
a. Ask
yourself the question û If this race were run 100 times, how many times would
this horse win.
B.
Structuring
a bet or bets to give you an edge a. Using
probability, decide on the lowest fair odds you would take before making a win
wager. You make a profit by being better then the public at large just often enough. You become better then the public by ferreting out overlooked contenders. The key mistake many handicappers make is trying to play too many races, either ones that arenÆt easy to understand, or ones in which the value for making a long term profit just isnÆt there. Having an edge before wagering is the prime factor in when to bet.
Remember: no edge = no bet.
The Favorite The favorite (or favorites) in a race are the key to when to
pass and when to play. áFavorites win
about 35% of the time. Therefore, they lose nearly two-thirds of the time.
Playing favorites only is a guaranteed loser, getting you back 82 cents on
every dollar, or an 18 cent loss. Just picking any horse at random to bet is
only slightly less profitable, returning 78 cents on every dollar. There are 3 types of
favorites: 1.
Legitimate a. The
class of the field. b. The
speed of the field. c. A
horse in form. d. Is
the only horse that fits the conditions of a, b and c. 2.
Vulnerable a. A horse that has some but not all of the 3 qualities above, or a horse that is not the only one that has those qualities. 3.
False a. A
horse that truly does not deserve to be a favorite. This is not the same as a
legitimate or vulnerable favorite going off at too low a price to make a win
wager on. b.
Examples of
False Favorites
i.
A horse that is dropping suspiciously in class,
especially 3 levels or more.
ii.
A favorite that doesnÆt fit the pace of the race.
Closers in a field without early speed, or a speed horse in a race with 2 or
more other speed horses.
iii.
A favorite trying something it has not done before, a
new distance, surface, or track condition.
iv.
A favorite that just ran a huge race in its first start
after a layoff.
v.
A Grade 1 winner coming back from a layoff in an
allowance or stakes that is not at least grade 3.
What to look for and what to avoid in specific
types of races. Straight Maiden /
Maiden Allowance (maiden races with no claiming price): Avoid: maiden claiming runners. Avoid: multiple losers (10 or more races) What to look for: Recent / Decent form, or sign of a
turnaround What to look for:á
Trainer ability What to look for: Early pace What to look for: first time starters with consistent works Maiden Claiming
(maiden races with a claiming price): Avoid: Horses that have lost at lower claiming levels. Avoid: Horses that have proven they just canÆt run What to look for: Horses dropping from Straight maiden /
maiden allowance What to look for: Recent / Decent form, or sign of a
turnaround What to look for: Trainer ability What to look for: Early Pace What to look for: first time starters with consistent works Restricted Claiming
(open only to non-winners of so many races or in some period of time): Avoid: Multiple losers at todayÆs level What to look for: Recent winners at a lower level What to look for: Horses on an improving pattern What to look for: Horses dropping from open claiming Allowance: Avoid: Multiple losers at todayÆs allowance condition, or
the last allowance condition. What to look for: Multiple winning claimers moving into
allowance company, especially in a weak field What to look for: Last out winners, maiden winners in the
non-winners of 1 x condition, and last out allowance winners at one level lower
allowance conditions What to look for: Legitimate allowance level runners, horses
that have never raced for a claiming price Dirt Routes: What to look for: Previous ability going two turns What to look for: Whether todayÆs race is a one turn ( What to look for: Two sprints into a route Turf: Remember: Turf races are run slow early and fast late. Class
is more important than pace. What to look for: Try to determine if the temporary rails
are in or out. In favors closers, out favors speed. What to look for: Previous ability under similar conditions. |