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Considering the results of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes run on Saturday 4/19 at Keeneland, the Kentucky Derby Picture is getting clearer by the day. Here is my personal top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

1. Brancusi - Like Empire Maker, it has been publicly stated by his trainer that the colt was not trained hard up to the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and that means his 2nd place finish to Peace Rules is likely much better than it looks on paper. Trained by Patrick Biancone, who has won Grade 1 races all over the world and who has trained champions as well as saddled the winner in back-to-back runnings of the Arc de Triomphes, this colt is peaking at the right time. Brancusi is bred to get the distance and may go off at a very sweet price come Derby day. Since my selections are as much based on making a long term profit as picking the most likely winner, if the race were run today this would be my top selection.

2. Empire Maker - Maybe Jerry Bailey was saving something for the Derby when just barely winning the Wood Memorial, maybe not. No doubt that Empire Maker has been ultra-impressive since blinkers were added. Still, if he or his jock plays the same type of cat-and-mouse game that he played with Funny Cide in the Wood he can be beaten in the Derby, and in spite of his high probability to win he will certainly be a short price when they go into the gate. All these question marks will make this a Derby to be remembered.

3. Scrimshaw - Lukas, Lukas, Lukas. He calls himself the old guy now, and has learned that looking good in February is unimportant, only looking good on the first Saturday in May. After minor throat surgery, Scrimshaw started working like the champion he was cut out to be, and proved it in winning the Coolmore Lexington in very impressive fashion. Since he had prior "A" form, lost it, and got it back, he deserves a big look to be in the hunt on Derby Day.

4. Eye of The Tiger - This colt will be a decent price on Derby Day, to be sure, and he has a lot of the qualifications to be a Derby contender. He raced at the age of two, an important historical factor and part of a foundation that most Derby winners have had, and with his gutty 2nd place finish in the Coolmore Lexington behind Scrimshaw being his first ever two turn race, he has a lot of room for improvement. Northern California's perennial leading trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, had a legitimate Derby contender in Globalize in recent years, but that one got injured before the Derby and never gave Jerry the shot. I am sure Jerry hopes to make up for that missed opportunity here with this talented colt.

5. Offlee Wild - Again, we're looking at a horse that was highly regarded, had issues, and is getting back to peak form. He had a virus that really set back his training earlier in the year, but showed once again the promise of earlier in the year when third in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Maybe he could use another race before the Derby, and maybe this is a case of the owners wanting to go against the best advice of his trainer, who deserves to win this if for no other reason then he has paid his dues all these many years. Still, I may have no problem backing him at a more then square price on Derby Day depending on his post and how the field shapes up.

6. Peace Rules -Maybe he didn't have much to beat in the Blue Grass, and maybe he took advantage of a track that was playing to inside speed, but he's continued to move forward with each race, and you can not ask for much more at this time of year. Admittedly the #2 Derby contender in the Frankel barn, Bobby seems to be playing as coy about this horse's chances as he was with Empire Maker earlier on, and that's very scary to me, as it should be to all of us considering the world class trainer that he is.

7. Ten Most Wanted - War Emblem redux, this colt romped in the Illinois Derby, just like War Emblem did last year as his final prep before winning the Kentucky Derby. Pat Day, a very good judge of quality horseflesh, really wants the mount, which speaks volumes for the talent this colt has. Ten Most Wanted is by the same top sire as Brancusi, and the recently defeated Ministers Wild Cat, so should have no problem getting the distance as well. He is another colt that should be a nice price on Derby Day, as the public normally discounts the Illinois Derby as a serious prep, and in spite of War Emblem's win last year should do the same here.

8. Funny Cide - A lot regarding this colt's chances depends on how good, or deceiving, the Wood Memorial was. He seemingly tested Empire Maker for the entire stretch. Jerry Bailey, rider of Empire Maker, said he wasn't asking his horse that much and every time Funny Cide came to him he kept his advantage, but on the other hand this guy ran his heart out in the Wood and if he repeats that effort or moves forward off of it, especially if his close finish to Empire Maker was legitimate, watch out.

9. Ten Cents A Shine - Sometimes, Lukas just scares the bejeezus out of me with his ability to get his horses to peak at the right time and at the right place. This colt, taken away from McPeek and given to Wayne a while back, has been highly touted since his dead heat allowance win at Gulfstream. He has run poorly since, but as Wayne recently proved with Scrimshaw, we should never, and I mean NEVER, count out a horse Lukas is high on, and a recent work at Churchill Downs after some dental work proves not only that he has the ability but likes the strip. The uncoupled entry rule may apply on Derby Day, with this horse 3 or 4 times the odds of his stablemate Scrimshaw, and maybe worth a buck or two at the minimum based on the "No Kick Me" rule, which says we never want to find it necessary to be kicking ourselves at the end of a race for NOT taking a shot.

10. Sir Cherokee - Hmmm, was his victory in the Arkansas Derby the result of a sprint pace set by Cat Genius, or was his last 1/8 mile fraction truly legitimate, likely one of the best finishes in the major Derby preps this year? I'm banking that it was a little of both, and as such we can not rule him out. Last year, many people, including yours truly, predicted a torrid pace duel, and instead War Emblem went wire-to-wire. This year, a lot of trainers may be trying to insure that doesn't happen again, and the pace may be hotly contested, which gives this colt the same shot to come home like a freight train at Churchill Downs like he did in the Arkansas Derby.

    Ellis' detailed selections and analysis for various racetracks throughout the country can be found at The Winners' Circle (a service of TrackMaster - An Equibase Company)